Saturday, September 8, 2007

The static nature of Technical Analysis...

In my view, the most fundamental flaw in technical analysis is the static nature of indicators, specially when they are critically dependent on the time period (or the number of samples).

For example a specific indicator may be based on the cyclic characteristics using past 10 samples. This is tuned to that duration; but the stock to which this is applied may have cyclic characteristics of around 5 days. Or the stock may be following a long term trend with no visible cyclic characteristics. In either of the two cases the indicator will become ineffective.

So, what is required is to have dynamic indicators, which can tune themselves, according to the stock characteristics. From a design perspective, the life starts to become difficult from this point onwards...

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